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ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa
CURRENT PROBLEMS IN REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH FROM SPACE

  

Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2026, V. 23, No. 4, pp. 293-301

Comparative analysis of actual and potential forest fire areas in Russia using remote sensing data and modeling

S.A. Khvostikov 1 , S.A. Bartalev 1 
1 Space Research Institute RAS, Moscow, Russia
Accepted: 15.07.2026
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2026-23-4-293-301
Large area of forest fires in Russia and their increasing damage demand effective fire-fighting measures. Estimation of their effectiveness requires information not only on actual wildfire area (that can be obtained using remote sensing due to the size of the country) but also on potential burnt area assuming zero fire-fighting efforts. We propose and analyze a method to estimate potential area burnt by wildfires in Russia using forest fire modeling based on meteorological data, land cover type and digital elevation map. Remote sensing data on fire origin locations was used to model potential fire spread for all fires assuming no human intervention. Comparison of model predictions with actual remote sensing information allowed us to estimate the influence of fire-fighting measures for the whole country and its regions. Analysis showed good agreement between actual information and model prediction at the annual level, and expected regional distribution of fire-fighting effectiveness. Also, we presented an example on how to use the proposed method to estimate potential area burnt by fires depending on different types of fire-fighting measures, as defined by the maximum time allowed between fire detection and its suppression.
Keywords: forest fires, remote sensing, modeling, firefighting
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