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ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa
CURRENT PROBLEMS IN REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH FROM SPACE

  

Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2025, V. 22, No. 4, pp. 317-332

Analysis of long-term precipitation trends in the Southern Aral Sea region

S.B. Kalabaev 1, 2 , F.Ya. Artikova 1 , B.E. Adenbaev 1 
1 Mirzo Ulugbek National University of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
2 Hydrometeorological Scientific Research Institute, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
Accepted: 02.06.2025
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2025-22-4-317-332
Global climate change and desiccation of the Aral Sea significantly affect both the dynamics and spatial distribution of precipitation in the Southern Aral Sea region, leading to ecosystem destabilization. This study analyzes spatial and temporal trends as well as the variability of annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation in the Southern Aral Sea region, using meteorological station observations and gridded satellite datasets. Monthly precipitation data for the period 1981–2023 were obtained from the archival records of the Agency of Hydrometeorological Services of Uzbekistan (Uzhydromet) and, together with the grid products of daily precipitation, they were used to establish temporal changes and spatial distributions in the Southern Aral Sea region. Analysis of precipitation measurements at weather stations has shown that the Southern Aral Sea region has an annual downward trend in precipitation between 1981 and 2023, by an average of 7 mm per decade. Gridded precipitation data were obtained from CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station) and PERSIANN-CDR (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks — Climate Data Record). By utilizing the analytical capabilities of GEE (Google Earth Engine), we compared the spatial and temporal patterns of observed and remotely sensed precipitation data and demonstrate that remote sensing products can be reliably used in inaccessible areas where there are no weather stations. The main findings of this study indicate that CHIRPS-modeled precipitation shows a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation by 1.73 and 1.0 mm respectively between 1981 and 2023, while ground-based observations indicate reductions of 8.8 and 2.5 mm.
Keywords: precipitation, Southern Aral Sea region, remote sensing, CHIRPS, PERSIANN-CDR, Google Earth Engine
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