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ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa
CURRENT PROBLEMS IN REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH FROM SPACE

  

Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2025, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 186-201

Analysis of land use changes in the Middle Volga Region based on Landsat data to assess the potential of returning abandoned cropland into use

M.A. Ivanov 1 , A.M. Gafurov 1 
1 Kazan Federal University, Kazan, Russia
Accepted: 14.03.2025
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2025-22-2-186-201
For the territory of the Middle Volga Region of the Russian Federation, the land use structure has been recognized for three periods: 1984–1989, 1999–2003 and 2018–2022 using Landsat data. For this purpose, cloudless composites of spectral bands and statistical metrics for 6 indices were prepared for each period using Google Earth Engine, training samples were created for each period for 6 land use/land cover classes: water bodies, forest, grassland, cropland, anthropogenic objects, rural. Classification was carried out using the Random Forest algorithm. The recognition accuracy, both overall and by class, was more than 96 % for each period. On the basis of classification rasters a map of land use and land cover change trajectories was created. Based on the trajectories, a detailed quantitative and spatial assessment of the potential of abandoned cropland recultivation was carried out. The possibility and availability of their recultivation were taken into account, given their current use and abandonment term. Of the 4.66 million hectares of abandoned cropland, 3.6 million hectares can be recultivated with the least cost, and 620 thousand hectares cannot be returned. In addition, the structure of the currently cultivated cropland was analyzed.
Keywords: land use, land cover, dynamics, Landsat, Random Forest, trajectories, abandoned cropland, recultivation
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