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ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa
CURRENT PROBLEMS IN REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH FROM SPACE

  

Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2020, Vol. 17, No. 2, pp. 275-281

Links between the vegetation state over Tien-Shan mountains and North Atlantic Oscillation indices of the upcoming season

A.G. Terekhov 1, 2 , N.N. Abayev 2, 3 , I.S. Vitkovskaya 1 , A.A. Pak 1 , Z.M. Yegemberdyeva 1, 4 
1 Institute of Information and Computing Technology MES RK, Almaty, Kazakhstan
2 RSE Kazhydromet, Almaty, Kazakhstan
3 al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
4 Almaty University of Power Engineering and Telecommunications, Almaty, Kazakhstan
Accepted: 28.02.2020
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2020-17-2-275-281
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the most pronounced global atmospheric centers of action that determines the weather regimes in the Northern Hemisphere. There are several natural parameters including Atlantic Ocean surface temperature and Eurasian snow cover which can be useful as predictors for the NAO indices of upcoming season. In this paper, we present a new prediction parameter which is summer NDVI vegetation indices of Tien Shan natural vegetation. The analysis of the period 2002–2018 showed that the July’s NDVI values for the natural mountain vegetation of the Tien Shan has a high correlation coefficient of 0,598 with March – July NAO values of the next season. Natural mountain vegetation was understood as the totality of phytocoenosis of the high-altitude zone, approximately 1300–3800 m above sea level, which includes: alpine/subalpine meadows, mountain forests and steppes. The seasonal state of vegetation was characterized by decadal products of FEWS NET eMODIS NDVI C6, resolution 250 m. The accumulated maximum of NDVI values for July 11–31 (20 and 21 decades) were used. The March – July monthly values of the NAO indices were taken from the archive of the National Weather Service (Climate Prediction Center). Since the positive NAO mode is associated with raised rainfall on the mainland, we see the persistence of seasonal weather patterns in Tien-Shan mountains. Features of the weather regime of the year (wet/dry) in Eurasia have an increased probability of reoccurrence in the next season. The detected effect may have prospects for the development of predicting schemes of the NAO indices values.
Keywords: indices of North Atlantic Oscillation, mountain vegetation, NDVI FEWS NET, Tien-Shan, linear correlation, persistence, forecast of NAO indices
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