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ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa
CURRENT PROBLEMS IN REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH FROM SPACE

  

Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2026. Т. 23. № 3. С. 179-194

Retrospective analysis of forest burnt area dynamics in Mari El using historical and geospatial data

O.N. Vorobev 1 , E.A. Kurbanov 1 , S.A. Lezhnin 1 , D.M. Dergunov 1 , B. Bui 2 , D.D. Golovkov 1 , A.V. Yelsukova 1 , D.A. Primechaev 1 
1 Volga State University of Technology, Yoshkar-Ola, Russia
2 Vietnam National University of Forestry, Hanoi, Vietnam
Accepted: 03.03.2026
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2026-23-3-179-194
Extreme droughts in European Russia lead to more intense and extensive forest fires resulting in serious socioeconomic and environmental consequences. The study presents a century-long retrospective assessment of burnt area dynamics in the Republic of Mari El, focusing on the aftermaths of major fires in 1921, 1972, 2010, and 2021. Using time series of Landsat and Sentinel satellite data, we generated thematic maps of fire-affected areas. The primary method involved calculating the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) before and after fire events. Methodological accuracy was validated against field data collected for fire impact assessment, with high Kappa coefficients (0,77 for 1972 and 0,79 for 2010) confirming strong agreement between satellite-based classification and field observations. By overlaying vector masks of burnt areas from different years we precisely identified territories affected by recurrent fires. Our analysis shows that over the 100-year period, more than 80,000 ha of forest burned repeatedly. Notably, approximately one-third of the area damaged in the 2010 fire occurred in pine stands that had regenerated on sites burnt in the 1972 fire. The proposed method — a retrospective analysis of burnt areas using satellite time series and archival data — opens new research perspective. It provides a powerful tool not only to accurately assess forest fire extent and impact but also to identify areas at high risk of repeated burning.
Keywords: wildfires, burnt area, time series, Landsat, Sentinel, NDVI, NBR
Full text

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