Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2026, V. 23, No. 1, pp. 221-230
Interannual variability of Atlantic–Arctic Ocean water exchange based on satellite data
E.E. Lemeshko 1 , E.M. Lemeshko 1 , S.V. Stanichny 1 1 Marine Hydrophysical Institute RAS, Sevastopol, Russia
Accepted: 10.10.2025
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2026-23-1-221-230
Since the end of the 20th century, there has been an increase in the temperature and volume of Atlantic waters (AW) entering the Arctic Ocean (AO) through the Fram Strait and the Barents Sea Opening (BSO), which has led to a reduction in the area of ice in winter in the areas of AW inflow. However, the resulting errors in assessing water exchange through these straits cause uncertainties in assessing the heat and freshwater balance of the AO. The paper is devoted to the study of the dependence of water exchange on Arctic and extra-Arctic types of atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of surface geostrophic velocities obtained from satellite altimetry data. The study area covers the Norwegian, Greenland and Barents Seas, and the subpolar region of the Atlantic. It is shown that geostrophic velocities are representative for assessing the inflow of AW to the AO through the Fram Strait and BSO. For it, significant (p < 0.05) regression coefficients for measuring the AW transport and linear trend coefficients were obtained. A weakening of both the influx of surface AW into the AO and the outflow of Arctic waters through the Fram Strait was observed in 2011–2020. It was found that the rate of AW influx through the Fram Strait is most influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AOS) during their positive phase and Arctic Dipole (AD). An effect of index synchronicity was found, when the AW influx rates averaged over simultaneous intervals of positive phases of the AOS, NAO and AD < 0 indices provided AW transport of up to 1.27 Sv which exceeds its long-term average. The negative phase of the East Atlantic Oscillation has the greatest influence on the rate of outflow of Arctic waters through the Fram Strait. The AD < 0 and NAO in the positive phase have the greatest impact on the AW inflow through the BSO. The effect of their synchronicity is manifested in an increase in the inflow rate of AB entering the Barents Sea to 2.1 Sv which is higher than the long-term average. The negative phase of the East Atlantic Oscillation has the greatest influence on the rate of outflow of Arctic waters through the Fram Strait. The maximum rate of water outflow from the Barents Sea is achieved when simultaneously the NAO is in a positive phase and the Scandinavian index is in a negative phase.
Keywords: Arctic Ocean, circulation patterns, water masses, climate indices, altimetry, Arctic climate variability, Fram Strait, Barents Sea, reanalysis
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