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ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa
CURRENT PROBLEMS IN REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH FROM SPACE

  

Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2026, V. 23, No. 1, pp. 123-139

Changes in the Earth’s gravitational field are an indicator of degradation of the permafrost zone

A.V. Kiselev 1 , V.I. Gornyy 1 , A.A. Tronin 1 
1 Saint Petersburg Federal Research Center RAS, Saint Petersburg, Russia
Accepted: 28.10.2025
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2026-23-1-123-139
The study aims to develop satellite monitoring of permafrost conditions and test the hypothesis that there is a decrease in the gravitational field of the Earth in areas where permafrost is melting due to global warming. The hypothesis is based on the idea that when permafrost melts, the seasonal thaw layer becomes deeper, and more water enters the ocean. This should lead to a reduction in the gravitational force of the Earth. Satellite variational gravimetry has been chosen as the main method for remote sensing. Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have been used for long-term monitoring over the past two decades. Analysis of the results was based on data from borehole observations of permafrost and satellite imagery of land surface temperature, vegetation, and precipitation trends, as well as on digital maps of these trends compiled over a long period. These data came from the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) network and satellite imagery. It was demonstrated that the results of satellite gravimetry measurements reflect the changes in the depth of the seasonal thaw layer, confirming the proposed hypothesis. The spatio-temporal characteristics of the long-term linear trend in gravity field variations within the permafrost region in Northern Eurasia were identified. On the basis of satellite imagery data over the past two decades, we can reliably conclude that the process of permafrost degradation is occurring in the Northern Eurasia west of the 140th meridian. To date, no significant signs of permafrost degradation have been observed east of this meridian. It is suggested that the process of permafrost degradation in the Kolyma River basin and on the Chukotka Peninsula is in its early stages, and longer-term monitoring is needed for more reliable satellite mapping of this process. A reliable regression relationship has been found between the sum of active temperatures of the underlying surface in the Northern Eurasian permafrost zone and the thickness of the effective moisture layer in September, as calculated using GRACE satellite data. As a result, over the past two decades, the upper estimate of sea level rise due to additional meltwater influx from this area has not exceeded 0.7 millimeters. The relevance of this study is determined by the potential threat of building and linear construction deformations due to permafrost degradation in the context of climate change.
Keywords: climate warming, Eurasia, permafrost, satellites, Earth’s surface, gravity field, temperature, vegetation index, trends, seasonal thawing layer, permafrost degradation
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