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ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa
CURRENT PROBLEMS IN REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH FROM SPACE

  

Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2025, V. 22, No. 6, pp. 312-325

Interannual changes in water levels in the Caspian Sea – Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay system and hydrometeorological parameters of the Caspian region in the first quarter of the 21st century

A.I. Ginzburg 1 , A.G. Kostianoy 1, 2, 2 , N.A. Sheremet 1 
1 Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS, Moscow, Russia
2 Moscow Witte University, Moscow, Russia
Accepted: 05.11.2025
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2025-22-6-312-325
The paper considers seasonal and interannual changes in the levels of the Caspian Sea and Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay (KBG) connected by a strait (September 1992 – May 2025, using satellite altimetry data), as well as a number of hydrometeorological parameters (air and water surface temperatures, precipitation, wind speed, and Volga runoff) in 2000–2024. The Caspian Sea level trends in different periods were: –8.90 cm/year in 1995–2024, –8.16 cm/year in 2005–2019 and –22.7 cm/year in 2020–2024. A similar change in the nature of the level trend took place in the KBG: –12.3 cm/year, –12.2 cm/year and –37.3 cm/year, respectively, in 1996–2024, 2005–2019 and 2020–2024. Thus, the last 5 years (2020–2024) turned out to be the years with the highest rate of decline in both the sea level and (especially) the bay level over the 30-year period (1995–2024). By the end of 2024, the levels of the Caspian Sea and the KBG decreased to marks of –29.34 and –31.1 m in the Baltic Height System (BS), respectively (both values are given taking into account an overestimation of altimeter data relative to instrumental measurements by approximately 0.5 m). Meanwhile, the Caspian Sea level exceeded the 1977 minimum (–29.0 m BS). Possible causes of this accelerated water level decline in the sea and the KBG are discussed. Using the water balance method, evaporation estimates were obtained from the surface areas of both reservoirs in 2023, for which the Caspian Sea’s runoff into the KBG was known (8.77 km3). For the Caspian Sea, this estimate was approximately 442 km3 (125 cm of water layer), and for the KBG, 19.5 km3 (114 cm of water depth). The ratio of evaporation to the incoming portion of the water balance was approximately 1.16 in the Caspian Sea and 1.54 in the KBG.
Keywords: Caspian Sea level, Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay level, air temperature, sea surface temperature, atmospheric precipitation, river runoff, interannual variability, Caspian Sea – KBG water balance, evaporation
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