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Uncertainties in calculating carbon monoxide balance in the atmosphere over large desert areas based on satellite monitoring data

E.V. Pashinov¹ , D.M. Ermakov^{1, 2} , S.A. Vturin¹

¹ Space Research Institute RAS, Moscow, Russia
² Kotelnikov Institute of Radioengineering and Electronics RAS, Fryazino Branch, Fryazino, Moscow Region, Russia

Accepted: 30.11.2025
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2025-22-6-419-425

A new approach to estimating uncertainties in the balance method for calculating vertical fluxes of matter between the atmosphere and the underlying surface is proposed. It is demonstrated to be an important complement to the previously proposed “reference candle” approach implemented using the example of analyzing carbon monoxide emissions from severe forest fires. Large land areas with near-zero vertical exchange of the studied gas component are proposed as calibration sites for testing the balance method algorithms. It is shown that the error estimates for cases of emissions from severe fires and areas with zero balances are currently consistent. Moreover, the new approach offers potential for further improvement of the balance method, as it does not require the use of independent model estimates, which also have significant uncertainties. It is noted that careful analysis and selection of calibration sites is necessary, since the absence of vertical exchange increases the role of factors of subsequent orders of smallness, in particular, chemical transformations that violate the balance method’s condition of conserving the total mass of matter.

Keywords: carbon monoxide, vertical fluxes, balance method, uncertainties

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