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ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa
CURRENT PROBLEMS IN REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH FROM SPACE

  

Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2025, V. 22, No. 3, pp. 64-80

Algorithm for using satellite imagery to identify promising areas for introduction of heat-loving agricultural crops: A case study of Novgorod Region

V.I. Gornyy 1 , O.V. Balun 1 , A.V. Kiselev 1 , I.A. Smirnov 2 , A.A. Tronin 1 , E.P. Shkodina 1 
1 Saint Petersburg Federal Research Center RAS, Saint Petersburg, Russia
2 Yaroslav-the-Wise Novgorod State University, Veliky Novgorod, Russia
Accepted: 21.04.2025
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2025-22-3-64-80
The observed climate warming has highlighted the importance of introducing heat-loving, high-yielding crops in the Non-Chernozem Zone of Russia. However, not all areas of this zone have reached the required active temperature for growing these crops. Thus, the purpose of this study is to develop an algorithm that uses satellite imagery to identify areas with increased heat availability, which is the first step towards introduction of these crops in the Non-Chernozem region. It is known that the thermal regime of soils depends on meteorological factors, agrophysical properties of soils, insolation levels of different forms of terrain, and presence of endogenic heating. Therefore, it is important to identify the most thermally favorable agricultural lands for economically viable cultivation of heat-loving exotic plants. To address this issue, Novgorod Region has been chosen as the focus of research, as Novgorod Agricultural Research Institute has been conducting agroecological trials of heat-loving sorghum varieties since 2016. The results of this long-term research form the basis for creating forecast maps of potential sorghum crop yields and identifying promising areas for cultivation. To generate these maps, we used a large amount of digital data from daily satellite infrared-thermal images collected during warm seasons in Novgorod Region over the past 20 years. The study provides a justification for the algorithm for mapping the sorghum yield forecast in Novgorod Region. An analysis of the spatio-temporal variability of heat supply in agricultural lands in Novgorod Region has been conducted. It is shown that an increase in heat supply to lands is expected by 2030, which will lead to an increase in sorghum yields. It is concluded that the developed technology can also be applied to other heat-loving plants.
Keywords: global warming, soils, heat-loving crops, introduction of sorghum, Novgorod Region, agroecological research, satellite thermal images, algorithm, yield forecast
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