Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2024, Vol. 21, No. 6, pp. 9-29
Investigation of the causes and consequences of melting Arctic ice
G.A. Avanesov
1 , B.S. Zhukov
1 , M.V. Mikhailov
2 1 Space Research Institute RAS, Moscow, Russia
2 S.P. Korolev Rocket and Space Сorporation “Energia”, Korolev, Russia
Accepted: 01.12.2024
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2024-21-6-9-29
The reason for the melting of the Arctic ice is hidden in a group of variable astronomical factors: the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit, the tilt of its rotation axis, and precession around the perpendicular to the plane of the ecliptic. They manifest themselves in the form of a surplus and deficit of insolation of the Earth’s surface, cyclically occurring in the polar regions of the planet with a precession period. In accordance with the astronomical model of insolation of the Earth‘s polar day zones presented in this work, the energy imbalance can vary within ±10 % of the annual share of solar radiation that corresponds to the area and geographical position of these areas of the planet. Due to the extremely low rates of change, calculated over many millennia, the energy imbalance cannot be measured today by either ground-based or space means. It can be seen and quantitatively assessed only in a mathematical model. At the same time, all the cosmic factors leading to the imbalance and listed here have long been well known from astronomy and are constantly used in all navigation systems without exception. The paper shows that the melting of the Arctic ice began about 10 thousand years ago. Due to the surplus of insolation, more ice melted annually during the polar day than froze during the polar night. By the middle of the last century, ice reserves came to an end, and the waters of the Arctic Ocean began to warm up. The melting of the Greenland ice began and is accelerating, which threatens catastrophic consequences. In Antarctica the surplus of insolation is currently being replaced by a deficit. The astronomical model of insolation proposed by the authors requires development. It is necessary to create an astronomical model similar in meaning to identify the surplus and deficit of insolation over the entire area of the globe. In addition, the new model should take into account the nutational oscillations of the Earth’s axis, as well as the deviations of the actual distance from the Earth to the Sun relative to the average ellipse of the Earth’s orbit. The conclusion to the work states that the situation with the melting of Arctic ice should be recognized as catastrophic, in connection with which it is necessary to make timely, scientifically sound management decisions.
Keywords: Earth, Moon, Arctic, Antarctica, orbit, eccentricity, ecliptic, tilt of the Earth’s axis, precession, nutation, insolation, energy imbalance, deficit, surplus
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