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ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa
CURRENT PROBLEMS IN REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH FROM SPACE

  

Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2024, Vol. 21, No. 5, pp. 9-19

The use of Earth remote sensing data to assess the recurrence of burnability peaks in forests of the Russian Federation

R.V. Kotelnikov 1 
1 Center of Forest Pyrology, Branch of the All-Russian Research Institute for Silviculture and Mechanization of Forestry, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
Accepted: 19.09.2024
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2024-21-5-9-19
Because of the large number of factors influencing the occurrence and spread of forest fires, such as climatic conditions, topography and human activity, the burnability of forests is generally random and non-deterministic. However, the generation of large volumes of well-structured remotely sensed data on forest fires allows us to identify a number of patterns, such as the recurrence of burnability peaks (mean fire interval). These cycles can be related to both weather and forest conditions. It is reasonable to analyze such cycles using data on the area covered by fire. As a territorial unit for analysis, it is reasonable to use forest districts (to account for forestry specifics) within constituent entities of the Russian Federation (to account for socio-economic factors). In all analyzed samples, only 7 or 8 variants of values of the dominant period are possible for the considered territories of the Russian Federation. This allows us to move from specific values to groups of territories, which simplifies the analysis of the influence of the sample length on the values of the dominant period. The results of determining the dominant cycle in the data using the classical method of spectral analysis (based on the maximum value of the periodogram) often depend on the length of the analyzed sample. In this case, the obtained values of the oscillation period are slightly shifted downward when the sample length is reduced. If in half or more than half of cases (sample variants) the value of the dominant period corresponds to one group, it can be concluded that for the specified territories the cycle of burning recurrence has already formed and is relatively stable, and the observed difference in the data is related to the shortcomings of the spectral analysis algorithm. To assess fire regimes, it is advisable to use the average value of the dominant period based on the results of the analysis of several samples (the longest within the available initial data). It was possible to calculate the dominant cycle of repetition of the peaks of burning for 61 % of the territory. At the same time, for 14 % of the territory, increased burnability is repeated approximately every 4 years. The map-scheme of forest burn recurrence in the territory of forest areas within the boundaries of the subjects of the Russian Federation obtained in the course of the study can be used for information support of management decisions in the sphere of strategic planning of forest protection from fires. In order to reduce the influence of the oscillatory cyclicity of the nature of forest fires when calculating long-term averages, it is advisable to choose the depth of retrospective data that is a multiple of the whole number of obtained values of the dominant period. The results of calculations show that for most of the territories such a recommended value is 11 years, which corresponds to the Schwabe-Wolf cycle.
Keywords: forest fires, remote sensing, spectral analysis, fire regimes
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