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ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa
CURRENT PROBLEMS IN REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH FROM SPACE

  

Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2023, Vol. 20, No. 4, pp. 149-164

Analysis of Landsat time series to identify climate-induced land cover changes on Kolguev Island

A.G. Shmatova 1 , J.A. Loshchagina 1 , P.M. Glazov 1 
1 Institute of Geography RAS, Moscow, Russia
Accepted: 12.05.2023
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2023-20-4-149-164
A method for analyzing Landsat time series was tested to identify climate-induced land cover changes in the tundra zone. Kolguev Island was chosen as a model area. Ways of solving the problems of applying the method in this region (cloudiness, landscape heterogeneity) are proposed. Long time series (1987–2020, 12 time slices) were used to obtain statistically significant results. For this purpose, criteria for selecting images were tested. We used images without atmospheric correction from Landsat-5, -7, -8 taken during active vegetation period. The training sample for image classification was created based on field descriptions of landscapes and then increased and corrected in several stages. Pixel-by-pixel comparison of classified images allowed to localize changes, which let to further refine the training sample, as well as to better interpret the results. The changes observed in each pixel were summarized for the entire region and presented as graphs. On them, the dynamics of the total area of a land cover class was decomposed into constituent transitions to/from other classes. The calculated coefficient of reliable approximation (R2) of some trends reached 0.6. Interpretation of the identified changes was carried out according to the landscape interpretation of the classes, their spectral characteristics and verification using more detailed images. Thus, the following changes were revealed on Kolguev Island: overgrowing of sedge communities with willows, drying up of fens and “greening” of moss-lichen tundras. At the same time, the processes of palsa mire degradation were not identified; the area of open sands had a weak trend towards reduction. Thus, the considered method can be recommended for a comprehensive identification of land cover changes in tundra landscapes.
Keywords: time series analysis, Landsat, land cover changes, climate change, tundra, Kolguev
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