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ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa
CURRENT PROBLEMS IN REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH FROM SPACE

  

Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2022, Vol. 19, No. 5, pp. 40-52

Flood prediction on major rivers from radiometric microwave measurements from space. Is it possible?

V.V. Sterlyadkin 1 , D.M. Ermakov 2, 3 , А.V. Kuzmin 2 , E.V. Pashinov 2 
1 MIREA — Russian Technological University, Moscow, Russia
2 Space Research Institute RAS, Moscow, Russia
3 Kotelnikov Institute of Radioengineering and Electronics RAS, Fryazino Branch, Fryazino, Moscow Region, Russia
Accepted: 19.10.2022
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2022-19-5-40-52
Heavy rainfall over catchment areas of large rivers leads to severe floods that pose serious threats to the population and infrastructure, cause significant socio-economic damage and hinder economic activities in the surrounding areas. In this work, based on a new method of satellite radiothermal imaging, which allows, based on the analysis of the reconstructed dynamics of precipitable water vapor (PWV) fields, calculating water vapor fluxes over the oceans, the accuracy of reconstructing PWV fields over land in the Amur River catchment area is estimated. The estimates make it possible to calculate the balance of atmospheric water over a selected area: the water vapor stored above the surface, the amount of water that entered or exited through the boundaries of the catchment area, and to determine the amount of precipitation for any selected time interval. The relative error of such measurements depends not only on the measurement errors of water vapor and the accuracy of radio thermal imaging methods in restoring the field of horizontal flows of atmospheric moisture, but also on the size of the river basin, the intensity and duration of precipitation. For example, for a territory that makes 20 % of the Amur basin with an average amount of precipitation of 60 mm for 10 days, the relative error of the proposed radiometric method for measuring precipitation, according to our estimates, will be about 22 %. Methods are proposed for checking the accuracy of the developed method by comparing it with data from ground-based radiosonde measurements, ground-based meteorological stations that measure the amount of precipitation, and data from ground-based meteorological radars. The analysis performed shows that it is quite possible to determine the amount of precipitation over the territory of the basin of large rivers based on multichannel radiometric microwave measurements from space.
Keywords: satellite monitoring of precipitation, flood forecast, Amur basin, water budget analysis, precipitable water vapor, PWV
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