ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa


Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2021, Vol. 18, No. 5, pp. 193-200

Analysis of interrelation of climatic change and dynamics of thermokarst lakes in the Arctic zone of Taymyr

V.Yu. Polishchuk 1, 2 , M.A. Kupriyanov 3 , Yu.M. Polishchuk 3 
1 Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS, Tomsk, Russia
2 Tomsk Politechnical University, Tomsk, Russia
3 Ugra Research Institute of Information Technologies, Khanty-Mansiysk, Russia
Accepted: 23.08.2021
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2021-18-5-193-200
The issues of analyzing the relationship between climate change and the dynamics of the areas of thermokarst lakes in the Taymyr Arctic over the past 35 years are considered. Using medium resolution satellite images of Landsat-4, -5, -7, -8 for the period 1985–2020 a time series of average values of the lake area was formed obtained by averaging the results of remote measurements of lake areas at 25 test sites located in the study area. On average, the analysis of the time series shows an increase in the size of lakes over the study period. The time series of the mean annual air temperature formed by the reanalysis method using the ERA-5 system shows, on average, an increase in temperature as a result of climate warming. The time series of annual precipitation amount was obtained for the period of study using data from a meteorological station located in the study area. On the basis of multivariate regression analysis of the obtained time series of lake areas and climatic parameters, a multiple regression equation was found which determines the relationship between the size of the lake area and changes in the average annual air temperature and annual precipitation. The equation showed that the greatest contribution to the increase in the size of lakes in the study area is made by an increase in temperature, and the effect of precipitation is negligible.
Keywords: satellite images, regression analysis, climatic changes, average annual temperature, precipitation level, reanalysis, permafrost, thermokarst lakes, Taymyr Arctic
Full text


  1. Kravtsova V. I., Rodionova T. V., Investigation of the dynamics in area and number of thermokarst lakes in various regions of Russian cryolithozone, using satellite images, Kriosfera Zemli, 2016, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp. 81–89 (in Russian).
  2. Polishchuk V. Yu., Polishchuk Yu. M., Geoimitatsionnoe modelirovanie polei termokarstovykh ozer v zonakh merzloty (Geo-simulation modeling of thermokarst lake fields in permafrost zones), Khanty-Mansiysk: UIP YuGU, 2013, 129 p. (in Russian).
  3. Polishchuk Yu. M., Bogdanov A. N., Bryksina N. A., Polishchuk V. Yu., Muratov I. N., Kupriyanov M. A., Baisalyamova O. A., Dneprovskaya V. P., Experience and results of a remote study of lakes in the permafrost zone of Western Siberia from satellite images of various resolutions over a 50-year period, Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2017, Vol. 14, No. 6, pp. 42–55 (in Russian), DOI: 10/21046/2070-7401-2017-14-6-42-55.
  4. Taymyr, Bol’shaya rossiiskaya entsiklopediya (The Great Russian Encyclopedia), 2017, available at: (accessed: 29.03.2021) (in Russian).
  5. Kirpotin S., Polishchuk Y., Bryksina N., Abrupt changes of thermokarst lakes in Western Siberia: impacts of climatic warming on permafrost melting, Intern. J. Environmental Studies, 2009, Vol. 66, No. 4, pp. 423–431, DOI: 10.1080/00207230902758287.
  6. Luoto M., Seppala M., Thermokarst ponds as indicator of the former distribution of palsas in Finnish Lapland, Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 2003, Vol. 14, pp. 19–27, DOI: 10.1002/ppp.441.
  7. Polishchuk V. Y., Polishchuk Y. M., Modeling of thermokarst lake dynamics in West-Siberian permafrost. Ch. 6, In: Permafrost: Distribution, Composition and Impacts on Infrastructure and Ecosystems, O. Pokrovsky (ed.), New York: Nova Science Publishers, 2014, pp. 205–234, DOI: 10. 978-94-007-4569-8.
  8. Polishchuk Y. M., Bryksina N. A., Polishchuk V. Y., Remote analysis of changes in the number and distribution of small thermokarst lakes by sizes in Cryolithozone of Western Siberia, 2015, Izvestia. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 2015, Vol. 51, No. 9, pp. 999–1006, DOI: 10.1134/S0001433815090145.
  9. Riordan B., Verbyla D., McGuire A. D., Shrinking ponds in subarctic Alaska based on 1950–2002 remotely sensed images, J. Geophysical Research, 2006, Vol. 111, Art. No. G04002, DOI: 10.1029/2005JG000150.