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ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa
CURRENT PROBLEMS IN REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH FROM SPACE

  

Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2020, Vol. 17, No. 3, pp. 187-201

Interannual variability in sea ice area of the Antarctic regions

V.N. Malinin 1 , P.A. Vainovskу 2 
1 Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Saint Petersburg, Russia
2 LLC “Prognoz”, Saint Petersburg, Russia
Accepted: 28.04.2020
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2020-17-3-187-201
The results of the analysis of formation of trends and frequency structure of the maximum, minimum and average annual sea ice extent (SIE) of various regions of the Southern Hemisphere for the period 1979–2017 inferred from satellite data are presented. The contribution of average annual SIE trends to the variance of the initial time series of individual regions is 6–13 %. Therefore, long-term inertial changes are not characteristic of the interannual course of SIE, thus complicating their mathematical description. It is shown that the character of interannual variability of sea ice in the Antarctic has many mysteries. A debating point is SIE increase until 2014, its rapid degradation being even more mysterious with the Antarctic SIE reduction by 2 million km2 during 3 years (2015–2017). It has been revealed that the formation of interannual fluctuations in sea ice in different sectors of the Antarctic occurs mainly under the influence of local conditions. The sector of the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas is the only region in the Southern Hemisphere where SIE is reducing. An analysis of the frequency structure of SIE time series following the trend elimination has shown that they represent a stationary random process developing according to the type of “white noise” model. But since the “white noise” accounts for 90 % of the variance of the SIE time series of the Antarctic, the qualitative description of the interannual variability of the sea ice area by deterministic models becomes impossible.
Keywords: sea ice, climate, Antarctic, trends, atmospheric circulation, circumpolar deep water
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