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русский
ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa
CURRENT PROBLEMS IN REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH FROM SPACE

  

Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2020, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 101-110

Performance and sensitivity analysis of the global permafrost GlobPermafrost model for Scandinavia

N.B. Nesterova 1 , J. Obu 2 
1 University of Tyumen, Tyumen, Russia
2 University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Accepted: 25.12.2019
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2020-17-1-101-110
The paper presents the results of accuracy analysis of the circumpolar permafrost map, which is an outcome of the GlobPermafrost model. For comparison, we have used permafrost probabilities from the GlobPermafrost map and the permafrost map developed for Norway, Sweden and Finland. Administrative borders of these countries defined the study area. The comparison of permafrost probability values on both maps shows that the GlobPermafrost map underestimates values of the regional permafrost map. The maximum underestimation was found in mountains and wetlands, where the permafrost in Scandinavia occurs. The model shows the highest accuracy in areas where there is little or no permafrost at all. Apart from the GlobPermafrost performance analysis, we have also evaluated the sensitivity of the model to land cover data as a model input. To perform this we have conducted an experiment of rerunning the model with improved land cover data. Unexpectedly, the improved land cover data have not had any important effect on the GlobPermafrost performance. These results lead to the conclusion that the GlobPermafrost model is sensitive to other inputs thus there is a need to study their importance in Scandinavia as well as in other parts of the Arctic.
Keywords: permafrost, modeling, GlobPermafrost, Arctic, permafrost map
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