ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa


Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2019, Vol. 16, No. 5, pp. 9-22

Changes in the global sea level in the current century

V.N. Malinin 1 , S.M. Gordeeva 1 , O.I. Shevchuk 1 
1 Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Saint Petersburg, Russia
Accepted: 15.08.2019
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2019-16-5-9-22
The article is devoted to the state of knowledge of the global sea level (GSL) changes in the past and nowadays, to the genesis of its interannual fluctuations, as well as its long-term (a century) projections. Two approaches to the genesis of the GSL are discussed. Foreign studies use the water balance equation in the hydrosphere whereby the GSL changes are determined by the corresponding variation in the volume of water of different cryospheric components and reserves of surface and underground continental waters. Another approach estimates the contribution of various factors using fresh-water balance equation as a sum of eustatic and steric factors. We consider the GSL projections at the end of the century based on the climatic scenarios of CMIP5. In view of the possible significant climate warming we discuss the probabilities of extreme scenarios of the GSL rise by 2.5 m.
Keywords: total precipitable water, air temperature, greenhouse effect, global warming, statistical models
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