Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2018, Vol. 15, No. 7, pp. 272-280
Observation of winter crops development in Russia in autumn 2018 based on remote sensing data
P.V. Denisov
1 , Yu.S. Krasheninnikova
2 , E.A. Loupian
2 , A.S. Martyanov
1 , D.E. Plotnikov
2 , I.I. Sereda
1 , V.A. Tolpin
2 , K.A. Troshko
1, 3 1 Analytical Сenter of the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia, Moscow, Russia
2 Space Research Institute RAS, Moscow, Russia
3 Institute of Geography RAS, Moscow, Russia
Accepted: 26.12.2018
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2018-15-7-272-280
The paper shows the results of winter crop conditions analysis in Russia during the autumn 2018. It reveals that the winter crops conditions in the autumn period, estimated from the deviations of the average annual scenarios development (norms), could be rather weakly correlated with the final results of their development in the next season (harvest). Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of the situation is necessary to assess the state of winter crops during the autumn and the prospects for their development. It includes determining the deviation causes of winter crops development from the multiyear “normal” value for specific areas. The analysis is based on the use of a map of land occupied by standing winter crops during the autumn 2018 (data obtained from the beginning of winter sowing until December 10, 2018). In general, the areas of winter crops, which were detected by satellite data in 2018, are about 1.7 % higher than the areas of winter crops detected in autumn 2017. Compared to 2017, significantly less winter crops were detected in the southeastern territories of the Rostov and Stavropol Regions. The paper also highlighted the fact that the NCEP model shows a noticeable decrease in soil moisture in the regions located north of Rostov-on-Don, in the second half of November compared to 2017. This may explain the fact that from October to November 2018 in most of the southern regions of European Russia (Krasnodar, Stavropol, Volgograd, Rostov, Saratov, Adygea and Crimea regions), the dynamics of the development of winter crops demonstrated a significant positive vegetation index deviation in relation to «normal» values, while to the north from them winter crops developed in accordance with the “normal” values or slightly lower. The paper illustrates the condition of winter crops in the Crimea and Stavropol regions in detail. It differs significantly from the development observed in the autumn 2017. It should be taken into account that there is a significant number of areas in the southern regions of the European Russia in which a substantial part of the sown winter crops apparently did not grow. This may increase the risk of winter crops dying in winter. Also a substantially less amount of precipitation was observed during the autumn in a significant number of regions compared to multiyear mean value. It may also increase the risk of winter crops dying. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that standing winter crops are mostly in good condition. Some problems in late November and early December were observed only in the belt of regions north of the Rostov Region.
Keywords: crop monitoring, Earth observation satellite systems, remote sensing
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