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ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa
CURRENT PROBLEMS IN REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH FROM SPACE

  

Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2017, Vol. 14, No. 6, pp. 97-107

Revealing and mapping long-term NDVI trends for the analysis of climate change contribution to agroecosystems’ productivity dynamics in the Northern Eurasian forest-steppe and steppe

N.O. Telnova 1 
1 Institute of Geography RAS, Moscow, Russia
Accepted: 01.12.2017
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2017-14-6-97-107
Northern Eurasian forest-steppe and steppe encompass a huge region where observed and projected climate change and in particular change in precipitation regime demonstrate high spatial heterogeneity. In this study, spatial and temporal variations of croplands and grasslands productivity in the main agricultural regions of Russia and adjacent countries are indicated by means of sum annual NDVI time series analysis. For the three decadal periods with different climatic and socio-economic conditions (1980s, 1990s and 2000s) we constructed time series of NDVI extracted from low-resolution remote sensing data (NOAA AVHRR, Terra MODIS) and time series of gridded climate data — precipitation and PDSI. Revealed non-parametric significant trends in sum annual NDVI were analyzed on the concordance of their signs with climate data trends for different forest-steppe and steppe ecoregions. Spatial analysis and resulted maps demonstrate the predominance of positive NDVI trends throughout the region for the 1980s under favorable climatic conditions whereas the 1990s are characterized with high spatially heterogeneous disagreement between signs of NDVI and climatic trends with more significant anthropogenic impact on general decline in agro-ecosystems’ productivity. In the 2000s the presence of extensive belt elongated through dry and deserted steppes from Lower Don basin to the Eastern Kazakhstan with stable negative NDVI trend under regional aridization verifies results of projected climate change in this region towards the middle of the 21 century.
Keywords: time series analysis, NDVI, precipitation, PDSI, forest-steppes and steppes, agricultural lands, climate change
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