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ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa
CURRENT PROBLEMS IN REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH FROM SPACE

  

Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2017, Vol. 14, No. 6, pp. 56-72

Spatial and interannual heterogeneity of changes in the vegetation cover of Eurasian tundra: Analysis of 2000-2016 MODIS data

V.V. Elsakov 1 
1 Institute of Biology of Komi Science Centre UrB RAS, Syktyvkar, Russia
Accepted: 22.11.2017
DOI: 10.21046/2070-7401-2017-14-6-56-72
Changes in vegetation cover of north Eurasian tundra (about 1750 thousand km2) for period 2000-2016 were analyzed using the dynamics of NDVI year maximum obtained by MODIS time series (MOD13Q1.005). Long term changes in annual index maxima were calculated for a grid compiled by plotting a grid of map sheets of scale 1:200000. Analysis of dynamics of average index values was carried out for each year for the elements of the grid. There were years with simultaneous presence of maximal and minimal values. Correlation between the sites was calculated using Pearson correlation parameters and coincided with the climatic zoning. Trend of linear changes (β) (ΔNDVIMAX year-1) was calculated for the entire time interval and for individual intervals (2000-2009 and 2009-2016). The initial stages of phytocenosis modifications manifested most intensively in the territory of European Russia for the period 2009-2016 after growth of the surface air temperature in 2000 (positive 44.1%, of which 32.3% are weak positive, negative 6.1%). The intensity of positive changes decreased to 30.4% (however, the growth of strong positive changes continued to 16.5%). The main predictor of changes for Trans-Ural region was the temperature regime of permafrost delaying response of plant communities to warming. Year changes had a similar pattern at West and North-East Siberia. The increase of the NDVI changes for West Siberia was strongly positive for the period 2009-2016 (from 4.8% for the period 2000-2009 to 35.8% for next period). For North-East Siberia, communities’ parameter changed from 5.5 to 30.9%. The greatest differences of NDVI trends were noted for the territory of East Siberia. The negative changes were associated with the starting degradation of permafrost expressed as polygonization and bogging processes at tundra during 2000-2009 years. Growth of significant negative (from 15.3 to 21.0%), decrease of weak negative (from 25.5 to 15.2%) transformations and slow increase of intensity of significant positive changes (from 3.5 to 14.7%) were noted for the comparable periods. Significant (p = 0.95) positive changes were registered up to 6.0% (for the period 2000-2009, from 2.4% to 3.1% for 2009-2016) for the all period of observations at territory of the North Eurasia. Changes in many sites were associated with changes in ecosystem components and were confirmed by the publications and our own field materials.
Keywords: satellite methods of research, MODIS time series, vegetation cover of the North of Eurasia
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