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ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa
CURRENT PROBLEMS IN REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH FROM SPACE

  

Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2015, Vol. 12, No. 4, pp. 38-47

The impact estimate of satellite information on the quality of numerical weather prediction

S.A. Soldatenko 1 , A.V. Tertyshnikov 2 , N.V. Shirshov 3 
1 Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS, Moscow, Russia
2 E.K. Fedorov Institute of Applied Geophysics, Moscow, Russia
3 TsENKI, Moscow, Russia
Substantial improvements in the accuracy of numerical weather prediction occurred over the past 10-15 years have been achieved not only by improving the mathematical models and the growth of computing power, but also due to significantly increased amount of available meteorological information, first of all from meteorological satellites. Continuous development of the global observing system and variety of technical equipment by which information is obtained demand estimating the impact of a specific type and source of information on the accuracy of numerical weather prediction. Usually, this problem is solved based on the data denial concept. In this paper, the universal method of estimating the impact of various types of meteorological data on the accuracy of numerical prediction is discussed. This approach is considered in the framework of the four-dimensional variational data assimilation system and is based on the theory of optimal control and adjoint equations. An energy norm is used as a measure of prediction error. The impact of different types of satellite information on the forecast error is discussed. This approach allows quantifying the contribution of each source of meteorological information into the quality of weather forecasting. This allows not only to estimate the strengths and weaknesses of the existing observation network, but also to justify the development of this network, providing the best value for money.
Keywords: variational assimilation, adjoint equations, theory of sensitivity, numerical weather prediction, GPS
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