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ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa
CURRENT PROBLEMS IN REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH FROM SPACE

  

Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2015, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 18-30

On the possibility to predict the yield of winter wheat in the Middle Volga region on the basis of integration of land and satellite data

O.V. Bereza1 , A.I. Strashnaya1 , E.A. Loupian2 
1 Hydrometeorological Research Centre of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
2 Space Research Institute RAS, Moscow, Russia
The dynamics of NDVI value (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) in dry years and in years with sufficient moisture of the Middle Volga region has been investigated. Dependencies of winter wheat productivity on meteorological factors are established. Based on the established relationship between winter wheat productivity and NDVI, the average long-term dynamics of the correlation coefficients between NDVI and the yield of wheat is presented for 2003-2013 by decades of the spring-summer vegetation period. The periods when forecasting of productivity is possible with the greatest accuracy are determined. Regression physical-statistical models are developed aimed at forecasting the average winter wheat productivity for various regions in agrometeorological conditions that have undergone marked changes over the past decades, based on meteorological factors and models that integrate terrestrial and satellite data. The forecast interval grew by one month.
Keywords: crop yield forecasting; winter wheat; NDVI; agrometeorological conditions; regression models
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