Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2014, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 54-61
The dynamics of regional cyclogenesis with short-period variations of wind in the tropical cyclones
N.S. Erokhin
1 , N.N. Zolnikova
1 , S.N. Artekha
1 , A.A. Lazarev
1 1 Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
An analysis of the temporal dynamics of the maximum wind speed in a tropical cyclone (TC) and sea surface temperature in the area of TC regional large-scale cyclogenesis (RLSC) is made on the basis of numerical calculations in the framework of the nonlinear small-parametric model (NSPM). Choosing the free parameters of the problem, different variants of temporal dynamics of RLSC may be considered in the implementation of short-period variations of wind speed in the TC (with characteristic times of variation of the order few days or less). It follows from these numerical results that the relatively small changes in background conditions can trigger considerable variations of wind speed in the TC during the activity season of this region when several typhoons are generated. According to the analysis performed, the characteristics of emerging TCs (wind speed, the duration of the life cycle, etc.) can vary significantly. From the calculations a possibility also follows to describe the RLSC-dynamics of a specific region on the basis of the nonlinear small-parametric model that will be consistent with observations. Moreover, the effect of external factors (such as solar-terrestrial relations, El Nino phenomenon, etc.) can be taken into account in NSPMcalculations by introducing some additive or multiplicative functions, each of which is associated with phenomenon under consideration, or by introducing single generic functional dependence. For example, similar dependences can be identified using statistical observations of RLSCs in each region for each season.
Keywords: tropical cyclones, regional cyclogenesis, small-parametric model, wind velocity variations, ocean surface temperature.
Full textReferences:
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