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Global atmospheric oscillations in dynamic of the recent climate

V.I. Byshev¹ , V.G. Neiman¹ , Ju.A. Romanov¹ , I.V. Serykh¹

¹ P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

The work confirmed, improved and extended the earlier hypothesis of the existence of inter-secular oscillations of the of modern climate system thermodynamic characteristics. Using a composite analysis of observational data on planetary fields of hydro-meteorological parameters of ocean and atmosphere the quasi-cyclic oscillations have been detected in recent climate dynamics with periods of 3–4 years and 20–30 years. These fluctuations were found to appear in the most explicit form in terms of large-scale redistribution of atmospheric mass, accompanied by a significant enhancement of positive atmospheric pressure anomaly in the equatorial-tropical zone of the Earth and the formation of other major anomalies of different signs in different areas. The results obtained suggest that the known multimode regional fluctuations in dynamics of the climate system (North Atlantic, North Pacific, Southern and other so called fluctuations) are derived of the forenamed global atmospheric oscillations (GAO), whose time scales range from several years to decades. It was found that multi-decade GAO is followed by the phase transitions in the course of the recent climate change. On the background of identified evolution of thermodynamic index of largescale processes in the climate system of the North Atlantic region the temporal characteristics of individual quasideterministic scenarios of the recent global climate were defined. Analytical detection of intra-decadal GAO gave an opportunity to formulate a new concept of physical trigger mechanism of the Pacific El Niño. On the basis of empirical data it was shown at the first time in the history of this process consideration that the well-known climatic events within the El Niño - Southern Oscillation are far beyond the regional scale of the Pacific basin, but should be seen as a structural part of the global atmospheric oscillations.

Keywords: atmosphere, ocean, oscillation, climate, climate system, El Niño

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References:

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