ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa


Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2013, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 206-211

Analysis of small-parametric model for seasonal behaviour of large-scale regional cyclogenesis with wind velocity variations

N.S. Erokhin 1, N.N. Zolnikova 2, L.A. Mikhailovskaya 2, A.A. Lazarev 2
1 Space Research Institute of RAS; Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, Russia; Moscow, Russia
2 Space Research Institute of RAS, Moscow, Russia
The numerical analysis of the nonlinear self-consistent small-parametric model (NSPM) of the regional large-scale cyclogenesis (RLSC) is continued on the basis of coupled system of nonlinear equations for the mean wind velocity and ocean surface temperature inside the tropical cyclone, describing the time dynamics of powerful atmospheric vortex. The NSPM generalization is given to take into account the possibility of both mean wind velocity and ocean surface temperature variations due to the nonstationary background. The model developed allows us to study various scenario of RLSC temporal dynamics. Numerical calculations have shown that by the suitable choice of NSPM parameters it is possible to obtain the RLSC annual behaviour with the generation during the active season of a given number of typhoons having different characteristics. The mean wind velocity and ocean surface temperature variations may be taken into account also. So the NSPM generalization allows to study the features of RLSC seasonal behaviour and its dependence on different external pumping like the space weather, El Nino phenomenon. Therefore it is possible now to elaborate the analytical model of RLSC for the given region. It is of great interest , in particular, for the elaboration of modern methods to forecast the large-scale atmospheric crisis processes like typhoons in different regions. For example, such methods must allow to explain the variability of RLSC intensity and its trends. The approach developed will be useful also for the estimates of TC influence on large-scale atmosphere circulation and to understand the connections of RLSC with different external perturbations because the standard correlation methods frequently give nonunique solutions.
Keywords: малопараметрическая модель, региональный крупномасштабный циклогенез, тропические циклоны, температура поверхности океана, активный сезон, вариации скорости ветра, small-parametric model, regional cyclogenesis, tropical cyclones, ocean surface temperature, active season, wind velocity variations
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