ISSN 2070-7401 (Print), ISSN 2411-0280 (Online)
Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa


Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 2012, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 243-248

Hydromechanical Model of a Tropical Cyclones motion

B.Ya. Shmerlin 1, M.B. Shmerlin 2
1 Research and Production Association «Typhoon», 249038 Kaluga region, Obninsk, 4 Pobedy street
2 Russian National Seismological Center GS RAS, 249035 Kaluga region, Obninsk, pr. Lenina 189
Within the frameworks of the hydromechanical model (HMM) the diagnostic, quasi-prognostic and prognostic calculations of TC movement are carried out. A TC motion is defined by a large-scale wind field and a TC intensity. The model contains parameters describing TC dimensions and a distribution of the tangential wind. Diagnostic and quasi-prognostic calculations mean that an objective analysis of a large scale wind field and an objective analysis of a TC intensity are used during the TC whole lifetime. In case of diagnostic calculations, model parameters (constants for each TC) are defined during all the TC life cycle; for quasi-prognostic calculations they are defined during the preliminary «preprognostic» period from the best coincidence between the real and calculated track of a TC. Diagnostic calculations show that the HMM rather correctly describes peculiarities of TC motion during the whole TC lifetime. Quasi-prognostic calculations show that model parameters may be rather correctly defined during the preliminary «preprognostic» period. Mean forecast errors of the quasi-prognostic calculations for the North-West Pacific are: 217, 272, 258, 257, 267 km for 3, 4…7 days correspondingly in the TC season of 2010. The mean forecast error of the prognostic calculations for this region and the season is 350 km for 72 hours, that insignificantly (about 35 km) exceeds the official error and is within the limits of the forecast errors of the most developed dynamical prediction models
Keywords: tropical cyclone, hydromechanical model, tropical cyclone track forecast, track forecast errors
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